The Global European Anticipation Bulletin No.19 of which an abstract is available, outlines some possible scenarios in the world of banking stemming from the unfolding subprime crisis and its siblings the credit crisis etc. "[A]t least one large US financial institution (bank, insurance, investment fund) will file for bankruptcy before February 2008, sparking off bankruptcies among a series of other financial institutions and banks in Europe (in the UK especially), in Asia and in various emerging countries."
GEAB N°19 - ContentsObviously there are plenty of signs of activity at the Fed and in Big-Corporate America to stave off this possibility and to minimize it. Thus the protracted series of adjustments to the books of various players and the paced revelations of write-downs stemming from SIV and conduit activities. The question that remains is whether the interventions available to governments are robust enough to succeed in a system that appears to have become a mystery to its designers like a modern Frankenstein. The international financial engineers are saying in effect that the way in which the new global reality is structured provides a field of buffers to dissipate the effects of any particular shock. However, it's as well to remember that this is what was claimed for large-scale hedging an eye-wink ago. Place your bets.
( Published on November 16,
2007)
International banks get dragged into financial crisis’ 'black
hole': Four triggering factors of a major financial bankruptcy
LEAP/E2020 now estimates that at least one large US financial
institution (bank, insurance, investment fund) will file for bankruptcy before
February 2008, sparking off bankruptcies among a series of other financial
institutions and banks in Europe (in the UK especially), in Asia and in various
emerging countries... (page 2)
Factor No.1 - Drastic drop in revenues
for banks operating in the US
The CDOs altogether are now dragged into a
general confidence crisis, and they represent a large part of bank assets since,
in the past few years, large banks from lenders became investors and
speculators, like hedge funds… (page 4)
Factor No.2 - Slumping value of
assets owned by these banks resulting from new US banking regulation (FASB
regulation 157)
On November 15, 2007, a regulatory factor, the FASB 157
standard (designed to enhance transparency of financial statements of financial
institutions operating in the US) speeds up the pace of financial organisations'
collapses (American and others)… (page 7)
Factor No.3 – Increasing
weakness of bond insurers
Bond insurers are financial markets' «
supports ». Completely unknown to the public today, their names could soon
become as common as the word 'subprime' has… (page 9)
Factor No.4 –
Economic recession in the US
As a complement to our anticipations of the
impact of the US economic recession for banks operating in the US, we find it
useful to analyse here how much US official statistics have become totally
surrealistic… (page 12)
